Race predictor: is it off a lot for some people?

[OddStuff]

Ok, this is probably going to be embarrassing... my current race prediction for a 5k is basically 10 minutes faster than I'm able to run, and 10k is off by 23mins. Basically, all distances give me paces I've never managed to run, and I'm running for 8 years now (yeah, there's a reason for that, a muscle condition). Is it possible that these predictions just don't work out for some people? The predicted 5k pace is 2min/km faster than I'm currently able to run a 5k at, and still faster than I ever ran a 5k at a race or otherwise. Haven't done a race for a while as it might get me into hospital, thus maybe actual race data is needed for this to work properly?

[mipapo]

Take a look at https://blog.runalyze.com/features/new- ... ce-status/

Adjusting the correction factor is always a good idea

Good races and in general good data is needed.

[OddStuff]

Thanks a lot Michael. Lets see how I can use the correction factor. The VO2max estimate is fairly spot on I'd say, based on a recent exercise test. Thus this looks good. But the predictions are still way off. If I change the correction factor then the VO2max seems to change. I guess my problem is a mismatch between these two things, with VO2max being good, but predictions being off due to not making full use of the VO2max. I guess that makes kind of sense: I can consume a fair amount of of oxygen as I'm quite fit, heart and lungs bored, but my muscles can't make use of it and hence i can't run as fast as I should be able to.

[OddStuff]

Oh wow! I just had a brainwave! Actually, this is a lot more brilliant than you might realize! I've been trying to quantify how much this condition limits me, and I can reverse engineer this! Thus using a correction factor of 0.7 I get realistic race results. And a VO2max that is 8 points lower than measured in the lab, and that is a lot lower than an untrained person of my age and gender should have. Thanks a lot! Exactly what I needed to convince a doctor who said that I'm so fit that I can't have any problems.

[laufhannes]

Thus using a correction factor of 0.7 I get realistic race results. And a VO2max that is 8 points lower than measured in the lab, and that is a lot lower than an untrained person of my age and gender should have. Thanks a lot! Exactly what I needed to convince a doctor who said that I'm so fit that I can't have any problems.

Please keep in mind that there's difference between VO2max from lab and Effective VO2max from Runalyze, see https://runalyze.com/help/article/diffe ... ive-vo2max